Here’s a thought experiment: Fred and Bay want to run a coin toss experiment. They want to make sure that the coin is completely unbiased – so they go to the US Mint and get a quarter that has passed all its tests (i.e. there is no manufacturing defect[1]); toss the coin 100 times. They... Continue Reading →
Of Tail Events
Thales of Miletus was a Greek mathematician and a pre-Socratic philosopher, generally regarded as the first philosopher on the Greek tradition. And here’s an interesting story about him: he predicted the weather and a good olive harvest for a particular year. He went a step further and reserved all the olive presses in advance at... Continue Reading →
Is the new normal ‘non-normal’?
When all of this is over, we will look back and think about why we ended up at a point where these stark, difficult choices had to be made - and what can we do to avoid these extreme situations in future? Needless to say, decision making under these conditions is hard - but then... Continue Reading →
The Speed premium
If there could be a VUCA* period in highly compressed time, we are in it right now. The world around us is changing in ways that we are yet to fully grasp. Among the many things that will change (some forever), I think we will end up re-defining what growth and innovation mean. The traditional... Continue Reading →
Navigating ‘wicked environments’
I am currently reading ‘Thinking in Bets’ by Annie Duke on of my favorite topics: Decision making under uncertainty (the book itself is so-so – will review that separately). A key point she makes: it is not the outcomes but the quality of your decisions that matter. Therein lies an important pearl of wisdom: we... Continue Reading →
Celebrating the learning and curious mindset 