18th century Europe was a particularly exciting time if you were in the seafaring business. There were multiple ventures, several with vast capital investment attempting some very bold goals (most of these ventures would be outright illegal or egregious by today’s standards or ethical standards of any age – colonial ambitions, slave trade et al.... Continue Reading →
#49: Problem Solving: Figuring out when to stop
Imagine this: you are going to the theater for a movie (in a post-covid world!) and you enter the parking lot. You have to make a choice as you drive towards the theater: do you pick the first open spot that you see (which means you have to walk longer and might miss the opening... Continue Reading →
Update your priors!
The other day, I saw a t-shirt slogan – ‘Update your priors!’ These nerdy t-shirt slogans are not uncommon in the Silicon Valley. This one caught my eye – to me, it has never been more relevant given the current swirl of data and analysis around Covid-19, now that epidemiologists and statisticians are in a... Continue Reading →
Complex Systems: Limits to our understanding
Over the last several weeks, I have been writing about decision making, with the focus being how to get better at navigating VUCA environments. This has been rooted in the paradigm of reasoning and a deterministic view of the world. Which to be sure, works pretty well in most situations. And then we got hit... Continue Reading →
Problem Solving: Learning from other disciplines
Richard Feynman Richard Feynman (he doesn’t need an introduction) was a consummate problem solver. When asked about his problem-solving techniques, his colleague Murray Gell-Mann (a Nobel Laureate himself) defined the ‘Feynman Problem Solving Algorithm’: Write down the problemThink very hardWrite down the answer While this was partly in jest, this to me captures why it... Continue Reading →
Navigating extreme events with small data
Here’s a thought experiment: Fred and Bay want to run a coin toss experiment. They want to make sure that the coin is completely unbiased – so they go to the US Mint and get a quarter that has passed all its tests (i.e. there is no manufacturing defect[1]); toss the coin 100 times. They... Continue Reading →
Designing a Learning System
In 1651, Thomas Hobbes wrote, “reason … is nothing but reckoning (that is, Adding and Subtracting) of the Consequences of generall names agreed upon.” It is widely accepted that with this, he laid the foundation for the Computational theory of the mind. And as often happens in science, one thing led to the other and... Continue Reading →
#59 – Learning: Exploring the ‘Adjacent Possible’
Isaac Newton, when asked how he was able to work out some of the fundamental laws in Physics, is said to have responded: “By standing on the shoulders of giants”. A couple of centuries later, a reported asked Einstein if he believed that his stunning contributions to Physics were ‘by standing on the shoulders of... Continue Reading →
#58 – Learning Systems
In my last post, I had made a case for expertise – and why it is important to have the necessary domain expertise in high performing teams. And not surprisingly, I got several responses arguing that experts are over-rated. Which I tend to agree with – experts are over-rated, but expertise is definitely not. The... Continue Reading →
#57 – What is expertise?
In one of the more obscure corners of the internet, there is a raging debate going on in the chess world ('A bird-seed seller beat a chess master online. And then it got ugly') Well worth a read – here’s the nub of the issue: on chess.com, an obscure player from Indonesia rose rapidly in... Continue Reading →
#56 – Problem Solving: Insights
The bright Data Scientist in your team has spent several intense days with a problem statement and comes to you with a bunch of Analysis and charts. She is all excited with her work – and your first question, ‘Where are the insights?’ I find some managers use this almost reflexively as a way to... Continue Reading →
#55: Problem Solving – working with Biases
Ludwig Wittgenstein was one of the legions of philosophers (lesser known, which is a travesty) from early 20th century. He is best known for language games – one of the questions that he posed: ‘Are you using a ruler to measure the table or the table to measure the ruler?’ This is more than just... Continue Reading →
