Over the last few posts, I had explored the overall idea of how to approach the problem of decision making in a world of ‘tail events’ and insufficient data. And increasingly, it is clear that most Analytics teams in organizations are not very well equipped to navigate this order of complexity. Over the next couple... Continue Reading →

I started this mini-series with the need to create models that could work with tail events,  working with small data and inferential thinking. In our final installment (and probably the densest!), I want to dip our toes into the world of simulations to help us navigate the business problem landscape in this ‘new normal’. As... Continue Reading →

It would be no understatement to say that Thomas Bayes was an obscure figure in the much-storied annals of mathematics and logic for a better part of the last 100 years. And then something happening in the last 10 years and now, he is everywhere – and has even entered mainstream culture by the eponymous... Continue Reading →

Hat tip: the great Bill Watterson We are all in online forums with endless discussions about everything related to the current coronavirus situation. My college (IIT Delhi) group is no exception – what is far more interesting is that every once in a while, we go down analysis rabbit holes on a variety of topics:... Continue Reading →

Here’s a thought experiment: Fred and Bay want to run a coin toss experiment. They want to make sure that the coin is completely unbiased – so they go to the US Mint and get a quarter that has passed all its tests (i.e. there is no manufacturing defect[1]); toss the coin 100 times. They... Continue Reading →